The Emerging Chinese Geopolitical Initiatives – Should Europe be Scared?
Chinese foreign policy in Europe has always been complex and multifaceted, maintaining a gradual pace and waiting for its momentum of a greater push that appears to have arrived recently. What is even more important is that when it comes to Europe, Chinese foreign strategy has escaped the aggressive and imperialistic niche that has been a symbol of other large nations in their quest for influence and power and has focused predominantly on partnering initiatives such as the Belt and Road and 17+1 formats (also 16+1 but today known as 14+1 after the exit of several states). These initiatives have represented the main foreign policy vehicle through which China has promoted its political stances. Chinese soft diplomacy has been exercised worldwide, however in the past couple of years, the Chinese sphere of interest has gained an impetus in Europe, although for many years the Asian superpower has worked slowly towards increasing its diplomatic, economic and political presence among European governments. The Chinese agenda in Europe which can be characterized as a strategy of cooperation and creation of key alliances, has ultimately led to complete political reliance on many European nations for Chinese products and other services.
Throughout the years, European statesmen have downplayed the economic role and vast influence China has played on the continent, thus allowing Chinese policies to further pass along in many European sectors, alongside state owned Chinese companies who have taken over key European landmarks and businesses in their control.
Additionally, China has made enormous efforts to form connections and foster extremely close relationships with vast European governments, directly gaining support from key stakeholders such as Prime Ministers, Presidents and entire political parties in power, as a direct pathway to exercising more political influence in key decision-making processes. This type of economic foreign diplomacy and conquering through the veil of partnership, is what makes China a subtle however extremely relevant political player that is becoming ever more present on the local European political scene.
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As many have downplayed Chinese economic dominance in Europe, they have allowed the Asian power to gain more influence as Europe is experiencing turbulent economic, geopolitical and social tensions in the past 2 years. Such a soft power strategy, nonetheless, is often times known to produce long-term and lasting impacts.
And this very modern notion is the key that separates the unique Chinese foreign agenda from other nations, its silent however very powerful tool of inserting its political influence and dominance among European states, through economic, cultural and political dependency on China in many spheres. Nevertheless, China has developed many international and European networks through the Belt and Road Initiative, a strategic Chinese program which aims to foster international relations, integration, economic stability and expand trade. Several European nations also part of the initiative have a friendly and close alliance with China on many infrastructure, economic and technological projects, including Greece, Serbia and Hungary.
It is highly relevant to note that there are 3 strategic aspects in which China has slowly shifted its influence in Europe: the first and the strongest representing the creation of economic dependency on many products and services, the promotion of Chinese cultural diplomacy and lastly, through its influence in the media sphere. This report will analyze each aspect and sphere of Chinese influence in Europe, including the close relationships fostered between several European states and China and will provide prospects for the future of Chinese foreign policy on the European continent in the upcoming years.
01
European Allies or Foes – China’s Foreign Policy Offense on the Continent
01
European Allies or Foes – China’s Foreign Policy Offense on the Continent
Europe has always been an attractive destination for many foreign investors and China has been no exception. Through continuing its previous business deals in several nations, it appears as China is only expanding its reach today.
In Greece, for instance the extremely relevant and strategic Mediterranean Port of Piraeus (considered one of the largest in Europe) was directly owned by the Chinese state-governed shipping enterprise COSCO, who has a majority stake. By controlling such an important port, the Chinese have inadvertently gained influence and access to all of the relevant trade deals occurring in the region and Europe. China, it seems through forming bilateral partnerships has slowly created these intertwined networks often utilizing the political instability or the weakness of specific political governments in Europe to gain a stronghold on key landmarks that represent strategic trade and economic hubs in Europe. Consequently, Greece is considered as among one of the closest Chinese friends and partners in Europe, with many Chinese investments and companies being present on the Greek market, despite the fact that the current Greek administration is always eager to reaffirm Greece’s commitment to the principles and values of the EU and NATO.
Continuing on, China has especially focused on fostering a good cooperation with CEE countries through the initial 17+1 initiative which many have considered a main Chinese instrument for the insertion of political influence in the CEE region. China has also targeted nationalistic governments in particular as an easier objective for partnership, such as Hungary under the leadership of Viktor Orban, who welcomed Chinese culture and educational institutions to open offices and universities in Budapest. Another extremely relevant aspect of Chinese and Hungarian partnership is the construction of the Budapest–Belgrade railway project, which following a longer delay was unblocked after the Hungarian government had agreed to a $1.9 billion loan contract to be taken from China’s Export-Import Bank that would ultimately pay for 85% of the project. In fact, as a result of the strengthened relationship between China and Hungary, Prime Minister Orban had refuted EU’s stance on the political situation in Hong Kong, in defense of China. This is only one example how the strong cultural and economic exchange between China and specific European nations later translates in the defense of Chinese domestic issues and its foreign policy agenda.
Furthermore, in the Balkan region, China has one of the closest cooperations with the Serbian government, with various investments in the transportation, medical and economic sector. The bilateral cooperation with Bosnia and Herzegovina has also been on the rise in the past period, with Chinese companies placing valuable investments in Bosnian capital infrastructure projects, especially for the development of the Stanari coal-fired power plant which was constructed by the Chinese corporation Dongfang Electric. North Macedonia also fostered a very close diplomatic relations with China, especially since Chinese state owned Sinohydro, was chosen to construct two extremely relevant highways in North Macedonia and was under question for corruption with the government of Prime Minister Nikola Gruevski at the time. Nevertheless, as the country shifted its priorities towards EU succession and aligned its strategic goals with the US as its long-term partner, China had drastically lost its political influence in the nation.
The case with Montenegro, reveals a same Chinese pattern of investment in capital projects for the country, where the government in Podgorica has been trapped with a highway loan from China equaling a sum of $944 million, marking this road, which stretches from the city of Bar to the Serbian border, as ‘one of the most expensive in the world.[1] Unable to fulfill the financial requirements of the loan, Montenegro had turned to the EU for assistance, where the union had decided to assist the nation in eliminating its enormous financial debt.
Once again, such Balkan examples attest to the strategy of economic dependency that China strives to create among European states, to later gain control over their political decisions and sway their diplomatic stances, especially in favor of China.
Furthermore, the Chinese government had an extremely close relationship with former Czech President, Milos Zeman, whose mandate had recently ended in March of 2023. Zeman managed to let Chinese authorities so close in the political decision-making processes of the Czech Republic, when he appointed the Head of the Chinese company, CEFC China Energy, close to the communist party in Beijing, as his advisor. Although the cooperation was later dissolved due to several reasons, it was supposed that the Chinese government had an open access to all the relevant strategic and diplomatic decisions made by the Czech President.
As opposed to the nations mentioned above that fostered an open and friendly relationship with China and are not afraid to admit their cooperation, the following nations that actually depend enormously on Chinese products and are the number one European importers and consumers in the Chinese economic chain, do not publicly admit their dependency on the Asian superpower. Rather they place a protective shield, enter into a bashing discourse on the geopolitical stances and pretenses of the Chinese government while publicly supporting the US and EU’s positions that declare China as a potential global threat. This creates a rather complex political dichotomy which only assists China to further expand its growing influence in the region. Subsequently, nations like the UK, France and Germany ease the process of integration and political influence of China on the European continent, by becoming inextricably reliant on the Asian power, a reliance that in the future would be more difficult to escape.
Based on statistical data published by Politico, the UK has been the largest recipient of Chinese investments in the period between 2000 and 2019, with a sum of 50.3 billion euros of foreign direct investments, following Germany, Italy, France which consecutively take the next three spots. Ironically such nations, have publicly propagated against the Chinese influence and foreign policy in the world, while representing the largest beneficiaries of Chinese finances in their countries.[2]
This statistic attests to the fact that most often the public political discourse is completely separate from the inside political agenda of the governments at stake, whose numbers show a very large dependency on the Chinese economy.
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The Emerging Chinese Geopolitical Initiatives – Should Europe be Scared?
Through critical investments in infrastructure and technology, Europe will experience the rise of Chinese political influence on the continent as the war in Ukraine progresses.
Furthermore, the European nations that are the largest importers of Chinese goods, have also been the same countries critical of Chinese political and economic measures. The first 5 places include the Netherlands with 88.41 billion euros in imports from China in 2019, Germany with 76.77 billion euros, the UK with 54.19 billion euros as well as Italy and France with 31 billion euros.[3]
Such numbers imply a large dependency of the mentioned nations on Chinese products and although neither UK, Germany nor France want to declare a public closeness or an adjacent political relationship with China, the fact remains that in the public they pretend to be the Chinese foes however in reality, they are economically tied to the Chinese market.
Germany for instance, has refreshed its diplomatic ties with China, with the visit of Chancellor Olaf Scholz in Nov of 2022, leading his trade and business delegation (including German CEOs from the chemicals company BASF as well as from the renowned brands Volkswagen and BMW) for a one-day official stay in Beijing. Nevertheless, the public discourse stemming from the coalition government in Germany has always been critical of Chinese security and foreign policies, being vocal about its goal to disassociate the German economy from the Chinese one, labeling China as a ‘systemic rival.’[4] Such a German rhetoric seems highly hypocritical taking into consideration the abovementioned trade numbers and the potential new trade alliances that were most likely negotiated in private during Scholz’s visit to Beijing.
It has become apparent that the political front of the leaders does not always match the true relationship that some European states foster with China, undeniably for economic purposes, which are seemingly masked under the public ostracizations of European leaders against China’s geopolitical influence and its potential security threat.
As no European state wants to admit their dependency on China for absolutely necessary resources. However, in reality starting with Germany, which after the war in Ukraine began, had lost its major energy supplier, Russia, has now become utterly dependent on China for raw earth materials. Even von der Leyen herself had confirmed that Germany and Europe itself rely 98% on China for raw earth resources, specifically importing 93% of magnesium and 97% of lithium.[5] This example is also relevant for other European nations who are completely reliant on renewable energy, raw earth resources, technology, railway and transport as well as other sectors from China.
Such a diplomatic strategy, that has intensified in Europe with the start of the Russian war against Ukraine, has made European nations more susceptible to political maneuvering due to their dependency on China. When your nation relies on a specific product that can only be delivered from China alone, then your diplomatic ties and relationship with your main source, become stronger and thus inclined to different types of political propaganda and influence. Therefore, China’s foreign policy in Europe is a slow moving but powerful and strategic tool, that is inextricable linked to creating economic dependency among European states on Chinese goods coupled with methods of promoting Chinese culture and utilizing the media as a powerful outlet for Chinese representation.
Apart from creating economic dependents among European nations, President Xi Jinping has been invested in the concept of Chinese cultural foreign policy that represents a powerful diplomatic tool when it comes to promoting Chinese culture and influence within the European continent and that is through the nationally funded Confucius Institutes in Europe.
Among them, the UK holds the first place in the number of opened institutes with a total of 30 around the entire nation,[6] following Germany with 19 and France with 18.[7] Additionally, China has sponsored many university programs in Europe’s capitals, allowing students free programs and educational stipends in China, spreading its educational standards and moral values of its Chinese culture in Europe. And academia has represented one of the Chinese strongholds in which the current communist party has dedicated enormous resources and energy, home and abroad as well.
When it comes to influence in the media sphere, many have speculated that in the past year China has been on the offense, taking advantage of the moment while Europe is flooded with different geopolitical discourse beginning with Russia to the Middle East. With many hot spots opened in the world, China has been slowly pushing forward its political stances through sponsoring specific media outlets in nations such as the Czech Republic, where two radio stations had conveyed programs from China Radio International. The content of the programs contained subtle and innocent messages on China’s position on the question with Taiwan and historical background of the Chinese state. As part of its foreign policy agenda, China has invested tremendously in the media sphere in many European countries, making a strong imprint of Chinese presence and culture in the European consciousness especially in the past years, an agenda that has been present and in the making for the last decade, however, has expanded drastically in the recent period.
02
China’s Severed Ties in
Europe
02
China’s Severed Ties in Europe
Due to inability of the Chinese authorities to establish a productive cooperation and alliance with the current Romanian government, China’s activities in the country have slowed down waiting for a more convenient time. It is relevant to mention that China has not ceased to work on a closer political relationship with the Romanian government, however, has currently lost its stronghold over the nation due to several factors including the predominant American influence in the country.
The case with Romania demonstrates the Chinese loss of influence in the state due to the change of Romanian governments and the more dominant US and EU pressure that has managed to detach the once very loyal European friend (especially in Ceausescu’s time) from the Chinese government. Apart from the regular trade relations between both China and Romania, the presence of large Chinese corporations in this European nation has been very limited as the new Romanian administration had altered the laws to protect the country from foreign interference in the business sector as of 2020 and to align its strategic goals with the principles of the EU. Moreover, all Chinese attempts to establish some form of cooperation between the China General Nuclear Power Group (CGN) with the Romanian state owned Nuclearelectrica for the establishment of a nuclear plant with two nuclear reactors on the territory of Romania, specifically in the region of Cernavoda, were halted by the Romanian government in 2020. This move signaled a big shift in direction for the country to its Western allies.
The current President of Romania, Klaus Iohannis has a reputation of a Western supporter being closely associated with the former US Ambassador to Romania, Adrian Zuckerman, who had advised Iohannis on key geopolitical matters in the country including against a strong national cooperation with China. Due to inability of the Chinese authorities to establish a productive cooperation and alliance with the current Romanian government, China’s activities in the country have slowed down waiting for a more convenient time. It is relevant to mention that China has not ceased to work on a closer political relationship with the Romanian government, however, has currently lost its stronghold over the nation due to several factors including the predominant American influence in the country.
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As China-Russia partnership reached its epitome with the progress of the war in Ukraine and trade between both nations has been on the rise in recent months, European states are manifesting their disapproval of this heightened geopolitical alliance. Namely, the Baltic nations of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania have left the 17+1 China partnership as a sign of political revolt and deteriorating relations with the Asian power. Although China attempted to maintain its neutrality concerning the war in Ukraine, it had never openly condemned Russian aggression and in fact increased its economic partnership with the Kremlin, while Europe fostered only anger and condemnation for Putin’s actions. Nevertheless, China’s seemingly maintained neutrality came at a cost of loosing 3 relevant Baltic states on the European continent who only stirred up the idea that abruptly discontinuing partnership with China was a plausible option. Although China might not be fatally impacted by the loss of these states in the now 14+1 alliance, such act has issued a political fear and distrust among European leaders to publicly cooperate with the Chinese government, risking Europe’s ostracization and disapproval.
The fact that China had severed its relationship with several other CEE states due its close ties with Russia is apparent through Poland’s political distancing from China. Namely, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Poland had refused to have a working meeting with some of the special representatives sent by the Chinese government to the region in Apr 2022, claiming utter disappointment from China’s political actions and foreign policy approach towards Russia. While this scenario occurred in the public arena, Poland is still affected by a trade scarcity and a void that can be fulfilled through products from the Chinese market. And although Poland expresses harsh skepticism and distrust towards the Chinese government, the necessity for cooperation and investments does not cease to escape the Polish reality. Therefore, unofficially Poland will not deny Chinese products and potential investment but will remain careful on cooperation with state-controlled businesses connected to the authorities in Beijing.
Therefore, the question remains, can European nations afford to play a political game with China, condemning its administration and policies publicly while heavily depending on major key supplies and imports from the country?
Although China’s intensified economic and political alliance with Russia in the past period has caused some complications with European nations and they have been quick in their public diplomatic reproaches towards the Asian power, the fact remains that European nations will not cease internal cooperation with China, because they remain heavily dependent on its products, services and investments in various sectors and industries. Such dependency will eventually cause the heated negative political rhetoric towards China to tone down. And the duality in this political scenario is highly ironic because Russia’s invasion in Ukraine, has depleted Europe from key resources especially energy and raw materials imported from Russia, while bringing the European continent in an inextricably linked dependency on China as an alternative source and provider.
In this political game it is Russia who has pushed European states to the verge of close collaboration and dependency on China, while the Asian power fosters close relations with both Russia and infiltrates its influence over Europe. It’s a political and diplomatic win-win for China whose main concern is to boost its economic dominance on a global scale.
On the question of how successful the foreign agenda of China has been in exerting political influence on European states in the past years, it can be said that with each year this diplomatic strategy on reliance becomes stronger. In fact, some of the mentioned scenarios of nations refusing to meet with Chinese diplomats or ceasing key investment deals with China have not been a strong indicator that the Asian power has been slipping its influence in Europe. Quite on the contrary. The vision of Chinese President Xi Jinping to preserve China’s internal security and develop its economic dominance on a global scale, which automatically assumes a new global reorganization of geopolitical relations, has been in progress in the past 10 years in Europe, however, has taken an accelerated strategic path as the war in Ukraine has showcased the many weaknesses of the European states and their dependencies.
This has prompted China to play a key strategic role on the European continent, both cooperating with Russia when it comes to trade and economic benefit, while moving forward its foreign policy goals among European states. The ultimate goal of China is to create a possible interference or shift in the process of decision making among European powers, gain economic superiority in major sectors and later on have some form of diplomatic leeway and support especially on political issues relevant to China, particularly after the global backlash on the Chinese government on issues related to Taiwan and the Uyghur population in Xinjiang Province.
03
Spheres of
Chinese Influence
03
Spheres of Chinese Influence
So far, we have witnessed that the main sectors of interest for Chinese authorities in Europe have been closely linked to the semiconductor industry, to infrastructural projects for which China offers enormous financial loans, to lucrative financial investments with aftereffects, promotion of Chinese exports, technological and telecommunications sector.
Nevertheless, the most problematic aspect that many European experts have warned about is the great Chinese expansion in key European infrastructure landmarks in which China owns a large stake. Those include strategic ports (Greece, Spain, Italy, Portugal) railways, electric vehicle companies, solar farms, airports and other key important enterprises. This fact has brought alarm among European officials who regard this Chinese infrastructural push as a potential security threat in the future. Furthermore, the fact that China has a majority ownership in such key strategic landmarks in European capitals only reinstates China’s foreign policy tactic, more political control through ownership of key national projects in Europe.
This is an extremely risky development that Europe has allowed in the past period, that could in the future potentially jeopardize national control over essential infrastructural landmarks. It is worthy to note that in the reverse case, the Chinese government will absolutely never allow foreign investments to take over Chinese national projects and places of essential value for the country. This notion in itself should represent a red flag for European governments to carefully reevaluate their foreign investments within national governments.
Although the EU has attempted to counteract the Chinese offense in infrastructure projects by launching the Global Gateway program in 2021, as a substitute to Chinese finances and the Belt and Road Initiative, the projected goals of the program have been extremely slow in implementation, allowing the Chinese initiatives to move forward faster.[8][9]
The second industry of interest for China has been the telecommunications alongside the technological sphere, especially with the case of 5G expansion in Europe, which became extremely problematic for obvious risks of surveillance and spying as well as for deepening Europe’s technological dependency on Chinese software. It has been revealed that the EU will press member nations to agree on banning Chinese companies, predominantly Huawei, in the installment of 5G networks as a potential cyber security and geopolitical threat to the entire continent.
The EU had raised the alarm of concern especially after the US had blamed Huawei of representing a ‘criminal enterprise’ that had stolen valuable security information and provided fake reports to the FBI.[10]
Nevertheless, a December 2022 study has showcased that European nations, in this case, Germany depends 59% on Chinese technology for the operations of its 5G networks. Italy and Netherlands follow the same pattern and have no intention of completely stopping their collaboration with Chinese software enterprises.[11] Therefore, despite American and EU pressure there are still European nations that utilize both Huawei and other Chinese providers for the functioning of their networks, solidifying the fact that China will continue to offer full telecommunications services to Europe in the period that follows, unless the EU imposes a mandatory ban on Huawei or other Chinese enterprises posing a security threat to the continent.
04
Future Expectations – Chinese Hegemony or EU Dominance?
04
Future Expectations – Chinese Hegemony or EU Dominance?
It is evident that the Chinese strive for an even greater geopolitical rise on the global scene is slowly becoming a reality through its long-term and gradual foreign policy approach, especially when it comes to Europe.
There has been some form of resistance against China both from the EU and the US that has slowed down the intensity of Chinese cooperation and influence, however, it has not managed to ultimately halt the government’s plans of a greater geopolitical presence on the European continent. Even though the EU had imposed sanctions against several Chinese representatives as an official reaction to Xi Jinping and his government on the infringement of the rights of the Uyghur population in Xinjiang province, this had very little effect on Chinese foreign policy in Europe let alone on trade. On the contrary, the Chinese government became even more resilient and persistent in its goal to foster greater economic ties with the EU states, despite all the political bashing against China stirred up by American influence as well. Ironically, while the US is placing all focus on economically deteriorating Russia, it is giving China the upper hand in Europe to become a valuable alternative for supplying specific goods.
Despite such small deterrence cases, in the period that follows, China will take advantage of the turbulent political situation in Europe and EU’s focus on Russia to accelerate its foreign policy within key strategic points on the continent.
Having said that, China will simultaneously expand its partnership with Russia, as both Xi Jinping and Putin had named their cooperation in Feb 2022 as ‘friendship without limits’ although in this friendship it appears China has definitely more to gain.[12] As Russia loses its credibility in Europe, China steps in, subsiding European skepticism toward its foreign policy and partnership with Russia by perfectly balancing neutrality and sending assistance to Ukraine. Meanwhile, China will be offering economic and trade alternatives to European nations that have denounced Russia from their trading roster lists. This Chinese strategy will continue to prevail in the next period while the war in Ukraine is still ongoing. And exactly China alongside the US as global leaders, will be the nations fulfilling the large gap in imports that Russia has created among European nations who have ended all collaboration with the Kremlin.
As some EU institutions weaken, especially financial ones including the European Central Bank as well as the International Monetary Fund, China will politically sweep up the gaps and offer lucrative financial loans and investments to European states in need, solidifying its place, position and deepening the European dependency on China.
It has become apparent that whenever specific European establishments are found under pressure or in political turmoil, China employs its strategy of assistance and creates close diplomatic relations with the nation at stake. It is no secret that the Chinese government has the closest relationship with nations that have not yet entered the EU or are completely disappointed by the strict policies and regulations of the EU that they automatically turn to China for assistance.
Such nations we have witnessed before are the Balkan countries of North Macedonia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Albania, Montenegro and now Serbia. Such countries are extremely vulnerable to foreign pressure as they do not adhere to the regulations of the EU, still awaiting formal accession. However, China does not fail to maintain a close economic relationship with EU member states such as France and Germany as well, playing a highly clever geopolitical game, which many have labeled as political duality but for China the most important reality remains economic dominance.
And the current Chinese government is determined to achieve its goal in Europe, in this specific constellation, utilizing the turbulent political momentum to reshape the geopolitical dominance and security alliances (including threatening NATO’s credibility) on the European continent. After all, the Chinese main aim in the next period would be to completely transform its negative image from a rival nation to a partnering one, ready to complete major investment projects for the economic growth of nations.
On the question of whether Chinese influence on the European continent will outperform the credibility of EU institutions and the value of NATO, this is highly unlikely to happen within the next 5 years.
On the continent, the European Union and the NATO pact will still represent the most dominant factors due to their political strength, that is to say that Chinese political motives as well as influence in European nations should not be underestimated or taken lightly. Moreover, what is highly plausible is that China will have an exceedingly relevant economic grip on many European nations, managing through its foreign policy to slowly shift the negative discourse that has been fostered among European governments, media and other institutions on China especially after the COVID-19 pandemic.
Despite American pressure in some European nations, in the next period China will drastically increase its economic, political and cultural presence in Europe, which in the long run will slowly start to jeopardize the reputation of EU institutions if they continue to fail or disintegrate in specific segments. Moreover, if the US experiences fall in its domestic leadership, especially with the new elections ahead and the tensions arising internally, China will utilize American defocus in Europe to establish more stable political grounds in specific European states. As a result, we should definitely expect more intensified political visits of Chinese envoys and representatives discussing possible areas of cooperation in European states in the period that follows.
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