Is Europe on the Verge of a New Chernobyl in Zaporizhzhia?
Almost 40 years ago the world witnessed the deadly blast of the Chernobyl nuclear plant, where images of contamination and people’s horror are forever engraved in the diary of Europe’s darkest moments. Today when the situation in Zaporizhzhia could escalate as 6 Chernobyls, we continue to watch with anxiety the constant shelling near the nuclear reactors. The occupation of the largest Ukrainian power plant by Russian forces is changing not only the warfare game, by adding a troublesome element of nuclear blackmail, but also the geopolitical landscape of Europe.
Nevertheless, what remains as the most disturbing notion infusing extreme distress among Europeans is the serious risks of another nuclear catastrophe amid the political blame game between Russia and Ukraine. The reality remains that Zaporizhzhia stands as a ticking time bomb against the heavy bombardment occurring in the area.
Despite all efforts and pleas from international organizations and world leaders, the risk persists and has still not been eliminated. It is highly unlikely that Russia will agree to any kind of demilitarization of the nuclear plant as its occupation seems to be deeply embedded into its wartime strategy, ultimately brining the threat of a nuclear accident to a higher level as the shelling persists.
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The damage that has already been assessed at the plant and the continuous bombardment, increase the chances of a potential malfunction to the reactors or operating systems in place, keeping the level of threat on a steady pace. And finally, even with the cold shutdown of the last operating nuclear reactor at Zaporizhzhia, the risk of a potential meltdown persists and is very much a plausible reality.
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Energoatom Staff Members
Under Extreme Pressure
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Energoatom Staff Members Under Extreme Pressure
Claims of psychological and physical torture on the Ukrainian personnel in charge of operations at the plant from Russian military forces only increases the probability of a nuclear accident from occurring.
Staff members at Zaporizhzhia have been subjected to unbearable working conditions for months, where engineers are forced to work 24 hours a day, psychologically tormented from the war conditions running on very little sleep. And this is not the only trigger that could possibly lead to a nuclear discharge due to human error. In addition to battling extremely difficult wartime working and living conditions, the personnel of Ukrainian Energoatom, are experiencing a ‘regime of harassment’ by Russian military authorities within the plant, Petro Kotin the President of Energoatom, accused.
Namely, several media outlets including the independent Moscow Times reported that on 09 Sep 2022, Russian soldiers had killed two Ukrainian staff members at the plant by brutally pounding them to death, capturing over 200 people and abusing many others. Several staff members described that they were being held at gunpoint by Russian soldiers each day as they were forced to complete their duties. Russian military was targeting pro-Ukrainian staff members and imposing strict methods of harassment, bringing many workers to a psychological breaking point.
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) later confirmed in its report that the 907 Ukrainian staff members were functioning under extremely tense and difficult circumstances coupled with exhaustion.
In addition, the report also revealed that staff members are not granted unrestricted entrance to key parts of the plant without previous authorization from the Russian military. According to the Head of the IAEA, Grossi, this occurrence could significantly impede the staff from an immediate and efficient reaction in a possible case of an emergency. Analyzing the consequences from enduring constant pressure of work overload, insomnia, torture and psychological trauma from the war and the Russian takeover of the plant, the safety at Zaporizhzhia is at a high risk, as the lives and working conditions of the operational staff inside is agonizing. Such exhaustion can afterwards lead to human error and inadequate handling of the nuclear operations possibly triggering another Chernobyl to hit the continent.
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Russian Demilitarization
at a Stalemate
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Russian Demilitarization at a Stalemate
Russia has rejected all demilitarization pleas of the area surrounding the nuclear station requested by the International Atomic Energy Agency and international organizations, eliminating the possibility to a halt of military shelling between both sides.
As long as Russian forces utilize the nuclear plant as a military base and refuse to remove military equipment, heavy bombardment and fighting with Ukrainian forces around the region will not stop. Every military attack poses an even greater risk to the nuclear reactors at Zaporizhzhia, acting as a fuse and waiting for a nuclear discharge to ignite. The urgency of demilitarization and the creation of a safe zone around the area was emphasized in the report submitted by the IAEA after agency officials completed their on-site assessment of the nuclear plant recently.
Undoubtedly the safety standards and regulations of the nuclear site have been majorly violated with the Russian takeover of Zaporizhzhia, prompting the Director General of the IAEA, Grossi, to suggest the establishment of an immediate safety zone within an agreed weapons free perimeter. This safety border would be respected by both the Russian and Ukrainian side in order to prevent artillery and other heavy weaponry hitting the nuclear reactors.
According to Kotin from Energoatom, the Ukrainian side would only accept complete demilitarization of the plant by Russian military forces, declining the establishment of specific security zones which would be in joint power with the Russian side. Kotin also requested that the personnel belonging to the Russian nuclear agency Rosatom be removed from the site in Zaporizhzhia.
Nevertheless, Moscow has refused any notion or appeal for a complete demilitarization of the nuclear premises, with the Deputy Director of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs’ Press Department, Nechayev emphasizing that such a strategic move would in fact increase the plant’s vulnerability. Through such statement Kremlin made it perfectly clear, that when it comes to the nuclear plant Russian authorities have no intention of leaving their already established military base and returning the governing power into the hands of the Ukrainians. Meanwhile, Russian military vehicles remain parked inside the nuclear plant’s turbine facilities. Therefore, all efforts and public calls by UN officials, country leaders and nuclear experts have failed to provide a diplomatic pathway for compromise on the issue with Russian authorities.
Assessing the fact that it is highly unlikely for Russia to give up its control of Zaporizhzhia or remove its military equipment, escalates the potential danger of a catastrophic nuclear discharge as more shelling occurs in the region each day. One fact remains, it will take immense political negotiations and diplomatic pressure to push Russian authorities to agree on creating even a possible safe zone perimeter around the plant, since Russia’s political interest in such a scenario is fairly weak.
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Zaporizhzhia Disconnected
from Ukraine’s Power Grid
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Zaporizhzhia Disconnected from Ukraine’s Power Grid
For the first time since its operations Zaporizhzhia was cut off from its external power supply of the Ukrainian grid due to increased shelling on 25 Aug 2022, barely escaping a nuclear accident and a potential deadly catastrophe.
According to reports, the intensified bombing with heavy artillery caused fire at a coal power station near the region where the nuclear plant is located impeding the offsite power source to Zaporizhzhia. Experts in the field warned that such potential power outages and major disturbances in the electricity supply to the plant could signify a risk for the reactor’s cooling systems prompting the use of emergency diesel generators that are often times risky to use and undependable. And if the worst scenario happens and the diesel back-up generators stop functioning at a certain point, this would potentially imply that the nuclear rector’s coolant would shut down immediately and fuel rods would start melting.
What has become an even greater concern is that with the occupation of Russian authorities, the occurrence of necessary safety assessments at Zaporizhzhia has become extremely difficult to execute. Although the external power supply was eventually restored, on 11 Sep 2022 it was announced that the last operating reactor at Zaporizhzhia will be placed into cold shutdown. Despite the fact that the reactor would not be operating and producing electricity, a process of cooling is still necessary in order to prevent the inside nuclear fuel from overheating and potentially releasing a nuclear discharge.
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Is Europe on the Verge of a New Chernobyl in Zaporizhzhia
The occupation of the largest Ukrainian power plant by Russian forces is changing not only the warfare game, but also the geopolitical landscape of Europe.
This only signifies that even in the case when the nuclear reactors are completely out of operations, there is still a strict safety procedure to prevent a serious accident from occurring. Nevertheless, the question remains as to how many more risky situations like this can be resolved without fatal consequences? Even though Zaporizhzhia’s reactors might be relatively protected from exploding unlike the ones in Chernobyl, the release of dangerous nuclear discharge in the event of an accident or shelling is undeniable.
According to the assessment report of the IAEA, various damages to the plant’s operating infrastructure close to the reactor buildings were already identified. According to Grossi, the intense shelling had caused damage not only to the electrical system of the plant especially with the disconnect from the Ukrainian power grid, but also to the Central Alarm Station and to a container which houses the radiation monitoring system, it was expressed. With this assessment, Grossi had concluded that the Seven Pillars on which the IAEA rests its security principles have been considerably compromised, increasing the level of risk when it comes to a potential nuclear accident.
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A New Dimension
of Warfare – Nuclear Coercion
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A New Dimension of Warfare – Nuclear Coercion
The use of the nuclear plant as a military base by the Russian side, represents a form of nuclear coercion, a war strategy which additionally increases the potential for a nuclear accident to occur.
The Russian military forces seized full control of Zaporizhzhia on exactly 04 Mar 2022, only nine days into the start of the war with Ukraine. As they began occupying the premises, they were well aware that as one of the largest nuclear plants on the European continent and among the 10 largest in the world, Zaporizhzhia generates about one fifth of Ukraine’s power supply. It is no coincidence that the main military strategy of the Russians was the direct control of the power plant which would eventually become their main wartime coercion mechanism.
Based on several assumptions, the principal plan was for Russia to achieve a complete detachment of the nuclear station with the Ukrainian power grid, which eventually occurred for the first time in the operation history of the plant. This strategy was to be accomplished through a complete disruption of the external power supply chain of the plant with Ukraine, which was achieved through increased shelling, also causing a total blackout in the Southern part of the country. Some of the possible scenarios were that Russian forces on site would attempt to establish a connection to the power grid in Crimea, however this procedure is extremely complicated and not easily achievable. Nevertheless, the main question of whether the Russians precalculated the potential risks in the accomplishment of their coercion strategy is highly questionable.
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The mere fact that the nuclear station is being used as a coercive wartime instrument brings the level of risk to an escalating point. In the long run while political national interests are accomplished, Zaporizhzhia stands as a ticking time bomb against all odds, stepping over all precautions and standards for nuclear safety. Even the so called ‘island mode’ operating scenario, where a complete shutdown of the nuclear reactors at Zaporizhzhia occurs slowly, the risk of turbine decay still persists. It was emphasized previously that out of the 6 nuclear reactors of the plant, four have been successfully shut off and cooled safely, the fifth one has slowly been taken off operation however still requires cooling and the sixth one is being placed under cold shutdown mode which has to occur gradually.
Nevertheless, as the last two reactors would require weeks to reach a safe cooling state, the situation remains dangerous as the bombardment in the immediate vicinity continues. Although some have argued that such a shutdown strategy or ‘island mode’ of nuclear operations significantly reduces the level of risk, at least preventing a nuclear catastrophe of a large magnitude, it does not completely eliminate other safety hazards that might occur in this cooling-off process. The IAEA recommended this island mode as a precautionary, emergency strategy however advised that its implementation would possibly contribute for the complete damage and tear of the nuclear turbines and pumps as well as interrupt the process of radioactive decay in fuel rods, causing possible damage and destruction.
The American Nuclear Regulatory Commission does not permit nuclear plants to enter a state of island mode operations, because they believe it represents a hazardous experiment not worth the risk. Nuclear safety engineers have argued that this method is not a long-term operational approach, but a temporary solution while external power supplies can be restored to the reactors.
The Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant has been functioning in such a manner for days, reducing its power manufacture capability and risking a potential damage to the energy-producing turbines. According to the Head of Ukraine’s State Nuclear Regulatory Inspectorate, Oleh Korikov, in this scenario the nuclear plant would have to depend on about twenty backup diesel generators to produce colling power.
The estimate is that the current level of fuel will only suffice for the next 10 days of operation while months are needed before the 5th and 6th reactor reach a safe mode and no longer represent a hazard with the potential of melting or destructing the fuel rods. Furthermore, Kotin from Energoatom confirmed that the back-up diesel generators are Zaporizhzhia’s last safety outlet before a nuclear accident takes place. Nevertheless, even the best potential scenario implemented still poses a dose of imminent risk from a nuclear discharge or hazardous damage to the plant, bearing grave consequences.
The panic alert level reached the red zone as the Ukrainian government sent out an official request on 26 Aug 2022 to the EU for the delivery of potassium iodide pills as a precautionary measure for all the inhabitants near the region of the nuclear plant, specifically the 400,000 people living within a 35-mile radius of Zaporizhzhia.
The tablets would potentially minimize the deadly effects from inhaling radioactive discharge that especially affects the thyroid gland. After a quick mobilization action, the Emergency Response Coordination Center through the rescEU strategic reserves managed to collect 5.5 million tablets worth over 500,000 euros. This precautionary measure only speaks to the fact that the use of a nuclear threat as a political extortion endangers the lives of innocent civilians. Nuclear power plants should not be utilized as a political strategy in attaining war gains.
Both Russia and Ukraine have overridden the fact that nuclear safety should not only be a priority for the citizens of Europe, but rather the world. This strategy of using nuclear stations as a military shield holds millions of civilian lives hostage to the political interests of some, by giving precedence on military warfare, rather than on security and civilian integrity.
Zaporizhzhia’s power plant will continue to pose a heightened threat on regional security as the concept of nuclear terrorism is implemented in the Russian-Ukrainian war strategy. The notion of nuclear terrorism, among many of its complex meanings, mostly commonly implies the act of detonating nuclear weapons as a form of military attack. In the case of Zaporizhzhia, under nuclear terrorism one would consider the direct sabotage or obstruction of a nuclear facility, for the purpose of achieving a certain political goal. Although both Russian and Ukrainian military forces are not deliberately aiming for the explosion of any power reactor surrounding the plant, nor is their final outcome a nuclear disaster that could impact the safety of both nations, yet the precedence of their political goals over immediate security has overshadowed their main priorities. In a way, the implementation of nuclear terrorism has become a political by-product in this case, satisfying the political ambitions and military aspirations of a select few.
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The Implementation
of Nuclear Treaties
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The Implementation of Nuclear Treaties
Nevertheless, what kind of implications can the use of nuclear threat as a political war strategy have on the future implementation of nuclear non-proliferation treaties and the safety of citizens worldwide?
Both Russia and Ukraine have undermined the concept of atomic safety by increasing military operations around the area of Zaporizhzhia, demonstrating to the maximum extent that there are truly no rules in warfare. However, where do the most sacred democratic principles stand when an entire civilization can be affected by the political egocentricity of specific political leaders? We are today living and accepting the concept of nuclear terrorism in the 21st century through the apparent Russian seizure or expressed with common language ‘kidnapping’ of a nuclear plant who inevitably withstands artillery strikes, missiles, daily shelling and power grid cut-offs risking the functionality of its reactors.
The world still remains on the marginality of the issue, with mere urges and pleas for the shelling around the nuclear plant in Zaporizhzhia to stop, however without precise restrictions or imposed consequences for such actions. While civilians take precautionary potassium iodide pills to survive a potential nuclear blast, the impression is left that political leaders and their subsequent military forces have the right to toy with the future of our children. This notion completely undermines the relevance of the many signed nuclear non-proliferation treaties and humanitarian laws that are supposed to usher notions of safety in people’s collective consciousness.
This military strategy especially used by the Russian authorities is not only undermining the significance of international organizations but also the applicability of nuclear safety agreements that have been negotiated and signed. As long as Russia continues to treat the Zaporizhzhia power plant as a military zone, the violation of safety principles reaches unprecedented levels and the threat of a possible nuclear accident along in the process remains.
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The World of Warfare
Forever Changed: What is Next?
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The World of Warfare Forever Changed: What is Next?
Russia’s military strategy has set a new political precedent in the world undercutting the international principles of no war zone around nuclear plants.
This political approach has breached not only the physical integrity and security of Zaporizhzhia but has reached much further, inadvertently undermining the safety of about 430 nuclear power plants running in over 30 countries around the world, making them now vulnerable to a similar practice. Evidence has shown that while four other countries housing nuclear power stations in the world were engaged in some type of military conflict or warfare specifically Pakistan, India, Armenia and Slovenia, they never came close to a situation like the one we are witnessing today in Zaporizhzhia. The countries’ nuclear stations were never completely taken over or used as a shield in military combat, as Russia is doing today. This completely uncontrollable and much riskier dimension of political conflict has severed all principles of international safety.
As Zaporizhzhia’s nuclear station has become the new frontier for the Russian-Ukrainian war, the IAEA’s Board of Governors consisting of 35 nations passed a resolution on 15 Sep 2022 requesting Russia to remove its troops from the nuclear plant and release it from occupation. Regardless of the fact that this resolution has no binding power on Russia’s decisions, it represents some form of response and firmness, setting a standard that if the world allows such military coercion on operating nuclear stations by Russia, this will represent the new normal and acceptable military strategy in all warfare conflicts that will arise in the future.
In addition, a global Avaaz petition was started urging all parties involved at the 10th NPT Review Conference of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) to impose a ban on all warfare activities occurring near any nuclear plant. However, after one month of deliberation it was revealed on 26 Aug 2022 that the delegates concerned failed to achieve an agreement at the NPT Review Conference, partly because of Russia’s objection.
If the world does not press harder on the Russian invasion of Zaporizhzhia, nuclear terrorism through sabotage of plants will come to exist as a normalized operating military strategy. Even if Europe manages to avert the danger lying ahead from a nuclear accident in Zaporizhzhia, this will not be the end of the roadblock.
According to Energoatom all nuclear reactors will remain shut down until Russian military forces leave the premises. Although this scenario brings down the level of nuclear threat at the plant, however not eliminating it completely, it opens another problematic situation for Ukraine. Since Zaporizhzhia provided almost half of the energy supply in Ukraine (containing 6 out of the 15 reactors in the country) with its complete shutdown, the level of energy production in the nation will drastically decrease, bringing into question the winter survival of many. With the new element of nuclear warfare introduced, the world will be trembling much longer in the future if international leaders and organizations do not press hard and press consistently on the matter. Without proper legislature which would be abiding by each nation in the world respectively, these nuclear warfare standards will be set as the new normal in combat and innocent people would bear the consequences.
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