Armenia and Azerbaijan’s political hostility over Nagorno Karabakh ignited in year 1988 and is commonly known as the modern phase of the dispute, while the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 additionally exacerbated the conflict into a territorial and ethnic war between both nations.

Namely, Nagorno Karabakh is located on the territory of Azerbaijan, however, has been populated by ethnic Armenians, with Baku always showing political aspirations to take full control of its territorial integrity. Violent tensions had flared up between both countries on many occasions, however the most violent clashes occurred in year 2020, with over 6,500 casualties in the six-week period of fighting. At the end of the bloody war, Azerbaijan celebrated its victory over Armenia which conceded defeat. Fast-forward to 2022, the brutal clashes have resurged with Azerbaijan’s aspirations of full territorial control of the Nagorno-Karabakh region growing stronger.

Therefore, if a permanent peace treaty is not signed, which would meet all the political goals of Azerbaijan, the armed conflict will not subside, in fact it will escalate even further until a complete military victory is achieved by Azerbaijan. If Armenia agrees to major concessions in the process of negotiations, it will possibly close the open question of Nagorno-Karabakh, however, it will trigger national unrest at home. Nevertheless, the most plausible scenario is that this conflict will not be resolved any time soon, as the political interests of Turkey and Russia will dominate in the dispute and will not allow an immediate halt of tensions.

In order to fully understand the stakes and relevance of the Nagorno-Karabakh war, one must first analyze the enormous potential of the disputed region. Namely, Azerbaijan has always sought the capacity of the Karabakh area that bears large economic benefits, being extremely rich in natural resources, such as gold and copper. It has been stated that only the gold mines Soyudlu or Zod (being positioned between Azerbaijan containing 76% and the rest belonging to Armenia) had a producing capacity of about 120 tons of pure gold in year 2010. Furthermore, it is not only gold and copper that has attracted both nations to this region, but also the rich water resources especially around the area of Sugovushan and Khudaferin. This is of essential importance for Azerbaijan as the country generates 25% of its water supply from this particular area.

Namely, on 26 Aug 2022 the President of Azerbaijan, Aliyev had stated that his army was headed towards the city of Lachin (located on the strategic corridor that links Nagorno-Karabakh with Armenia) to push out Russian peacekeepers and seize full control of the disputed territory.
Shortly after the announcement, Azerbaijani soldiers waving the national flag took over the governance in Lachin replacing Russian troops. This political move by Azerbaijan only signified that the Russian brokered ceasefire had no political significance as the country moved forward with its military strategy and regaining back full territorial control of the region at stake. This failed agreement only minimized the value of ceasefire deals, where Azerbaijan militarily supported by Turkey and Israel as a trio alliance stood politically dominant against Russia, which attempted to assert its control in the region, however to no avail and with no positive outcome. Nevertheless, this failed peacekeeping deal also ushered a new sense of insecurity among Armenians who were heavily relying on Russia to administer peace in the region.

Fast forward to the present, EU has facilitated four rounds of mediation talks between leaders of Azerbaijan and Armenia, with the latest occurring on 31 Aug 2022 as a trilateral meeting including the President of the European Council, Charles Michel. During the meeting, Michel urged especially the Azerbaijani side to react on the issue of holding Armenian detainees and on the urgency of achieving a long-lasting peace treaty between both nations.

Although negotiations between Aliyev and Pashinyan seemed to have some form of progress, two weeks after the last brokered EU talks, Azerbaijan performed a military intrusion on Armenian territory on 13 Sep 2022. This invasion happened to be perfectly aligned in the same period when Russia suffered military losses on the territory of Ukraine.

Although Azerbaijan claimed that Armenia started the provocation, such allegations could not be substantiated. Amidst peace negotiations facilitated by the EU, another violent clash erupts in the region, killing almost 300 people, once again proving that these year-long discussions have failed to bring a long-lasting resolution to the ongoing problem between the two countries. It is possible that the EU negotiations did not yield a positive outcome because they lacked a more intense support and possible push from other international factors. After the violent clash, Russia brokered a temporary ceasefire, which represents a provisional deal, buying some necessary time and creating a political prolongment of the brewing territorial war in the South Caucasus that will escalate even further if not prevented beforehand.

Furthermore, on 19 Sep 2022, US Secretary of State, Blinken held a meeting with the Armenian Minister of Foreign Affairs, Ararat Mirzoyan and the Azerbaijani Foreign Minister, Jeyhun Bayramov in New York, amid the UN General Assembly. These represented the first direct talks between both nations after violent clashes escalated in the days prior to the meeting. And with this process of negotiations, the US officially became involved as a mediator in the conflict, attempting to ease hostilities and sustain the unstable ceasefire arranged by Russia, offering multilateral support to both nations.

Continuing on with his political ambition of retaining back the lost territories within Azerbaijan, Aliyev carefully planned an offensive against Armenia for a long time. What was different during the 48 hours of violent clashes on 13 Sep 2022, was the fact that the conflict was no longer restrained to the enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh, rather the military of Azerbaijan had protruded deep into Armenian territory setting a precedent in the conflict so far. The government in Yerevan had claimed that Azerbaijan seized control of at least 10km of Armenian territory in an unprovoked aggression attack as Armenian authorities specified. The government in Baku denied all such allegations, first claiming that Azerbaijani military was protecting itself from Armenian soldiers who were to position mines on roads near the border line. Nevertheless, these claims were never justified by evidence.

After achieving a victory in the 2020 conflict and regaining back control of some of its territories, Aliyev invested in Azerbaijan’s military infrastructure and increased its political aspirations along the way. While asserting Azerbaijan’s military dominance in the region, Aliyev was strategically playing the international community focused on achieving two main objectives.

Though Azerbaijan’s latest and most intense military action against Armenia confused many, Aliyev took advantage of Russia’s focus on Ukraine and its inability to honor much of its bilateral defense treaty with Armenia leaving its ally vulnerable to attack. Therefore, the military action was definitely preplanned and premediated by Aliyev representing not only an assault on Armenia but also on Russian dominance in the region.

The goal was to showcase to the international community and Armenia that they cannot rely on Russia any longer, as Kremlin has its own political interests and priorities, slowly losing its grip in the region of Caucasus. Continuing with EU negotiations, the President of Azerbaijan fulfills his diplomatic duty of cooperating in front of the international community, while hanging on his military power as a primary tool of asserting Azerbaijan’s military supremacy over Armenia.

Many have wondered why Aliyev moves forward with international negotiations for a peace treaty while his military continues the offensive against Armenia. The mediation process facilitated by the EU and the US still represents a backup strategy for Aliyev securing him provisions that he cannot achieve so easily by means of force, due to their complicated political nature. Consequently, Aliyev hurried to continue the diplomatic talks in the US shortly after his military gained the upper hand in the war conflict. His goal was to politically extort from Armenia to reject any possible claims of Karabakh and agree to a new road route and connection across Armenian territory to the region of Nakhchivan, where Azerbaijan will be subjected to minimum security checks and regulations. Lastly, one of Azerbaijan’s important objectives is to settle through a written agreement with Armenia the demarcation of the border line, leaning in its favor and to its political interest.

Aliyev firmly believes that he has a political stronghold over Armenia both militarily and in the negotiations process. Especially after the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen had a working visit in Baku, with the goal of purchasing gas from Azerbaijan in July 2022. In her joint press conference with the President of Azerbaijan, Leyen referred to the country as a ‘reliable and trustworthy partner’ to Europe when it comes to mutual collaboration on many issues especially as an alternative gas supplier. However, she did not once refer to the ongoing conflict with Armenia nor publicly urge for the signing of a peace treaty. On the other hand, Aliyev recognized the need and urgency that Europe has from Azerbaijani gas, proclaiming this visit as a small victory for Azerbaijan when it comes to European support and having a more favorable position in the European peace talks.

Aliyev’s political strategy was to utilize the current geopolitical circumstances especially with Europe’s depletion of energy and Russia’s war in Ukraine, in order to gain significant advantages in the war conflict with Armenia. Meanwhile, Armenia has formally invoked Article 4 of the CSTO charter similar to NATO’s Article 5, however Russian hesitance and deafness towards Armenian pleas leaves room for new violent clashes in the region. Article 5 from NATO’s charter implying that when one member nation is under an armed attack, all allies will consider it as an act of aggression and react accordingly, represents a very dangerous invitation for a full-scale war between many nations.

Therefore, this article has always been taken with a dose of reservation and fear, carrying enormous political responsibility in itself. Although Armenia has urged Russia to apply Article 4 form the Collective Security Treaty Organization’s charter which represents the equivalent of NATO’s Article 5, the situation has not yet escalated to quite that level. Russia has attempted to mediate the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan and remain somewhat neutral in the entire territorial dispute, while diplomatically distancing itself from a bigger commitment towards Armenia. The Russian governed CSTO has evaluated the situation and has only issued a consultative response sending a monitoring mission in Yerevan led by the Secretary General of the organization, Belarusian Stanislav Zas, to assess the potential crisis.

This question depends on how far Azerbaijan will go with its demands of political “proprietorship” and unrestricted access of the famously known “Zangezur Corridor.” If given full access through the signing of a specific peace treaty as Azerbaijan insists, the country will have unrestricted passage to Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic. This is also in the political interest of Turkey, as the corridor represents a large part in a highly relevant transportation development plan linking Baku and Istanbul. As President Aliyev stated when hosting Turkish President Erdogan in 2021 in the Zangilan district, this transportation corridor has the significance of linking the entire Turkic world together.

Therefore, Russia will further remain diplomatically neutral in the conflict, due to pre-calculated political interests, acting as a mediator if new tensions emerge between both nations, while cheering Armenia from the sidelines to appease public discourse. Meanwhile Azerbaijan supported by Turkey will continue to attend diplomatic talks seemingly interested in appeasement with Armenia and an end to the conflict while taking every opportunity to militarily provoke its neighbor and showcase its expansionist aspirations. The conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan is far from over, leaving Yerevan in the middle of a major power struggle between Turkey and Russia.