The repercussions of the conflict on European soil have resulted in skyrocketing of global commodity prices, triggering discontent of the population on the continent. The accelerated rise in commodity prices, including energy prices, as well as supply chain disruptions, would ultimately lead to a growing number of European citizens resorting to demonstrations, protesting their government’s political decisions, influenced by the raging conflict in Eastern Europe. The demands to address the rising energy prices, soaring inflation, expressing antagonism toward NATO and EU, including calls for neutrality in the Ukrainian war are common denominator of the current protests. The social unrests that have started occurring in certain parts of Europe, might as well be harbingers of the waves of political instability, that the region should be bracing for in 2023.

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While EU authorities, as well as respective member states, initiated measures to address rising energy prices, the ruling elites were put in the spotlight due to their overdue and unproductive reactions, while attempting to prevent the looming economic and humanitarian crisis.

Even in spite of all fears related to the economic repercussions, in an effort to slam the brakes of skyrocketing prices, the European Union resorted to imposing substantial interventions in the form of introducing price caps for Russian gas and emergency credit lines for participants in the energy market. Faced with enormous political pressure, the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen’s statement, further reveals EU’s efforts to thwart the imminent crisis, by introducing an emergency measure to structurally reform EU’s electricity market. On the other side of the fence, after the G7 meeting which took place in the beginning of September 2022, and the revealed plans to introduce price caps on Russian energy products, the Russian administration warned that the event would lead to Russia’s withdrawal from the agreement for supplying gas to Europe. This could well lead to another wave of skyrocketing prices of energy in the following period.

Another perspective of the oil price cap introduction on global markets, aiming to impede the Russian main source of revenues, are the fears that not all oil producing countries are on the same boat, fearing that it would additionally disrupt and distort the commodity markets, coupled with multiplication of risks for businesses across the globe and even create black oil markets. After all, oil is still a key commodity, especially in developing economies, such as India and China, where basic industries still rely on fossil fuels. Going back to Old Continent, having in mind the recent German decision to upscale its military apparatus, fossil fuels are likely to remain in high demand for the proper operations of militaries worldwide, and not just in Germany.

Similar event occurred in the Nordic region, where Sweden and Norway revealed the establishment of a joint task force to curb rising electricity bills in the region. Nevertheless, the already excessive cost of energy resources and insufficient additional capacity to implement this solidarity plan, do not seem to be the key solution for putting the crisis under control.

On one hand, EU’s abandonment of Russian oil and gas, certainly does not mean a transition into a post-fossil fuel economy, since Europe is turning toward burning coal instead, in order to keep the lights on. In other words, EU countries are resorting to sourcing coal from other countries, such as South Africa, Columbia and Indonesia, neglecting the EU climate change policy. Yet conversely, Russia is diverting the Europe-destined coal and other products as well to Turkey, China, and India. For instance, Russia’s coal exports to China reached the highest level in the last five years.

In summary, the continual efforts of market liberalization in the past, coupled up with the European dependence on cheap Russian gas, oil and coal have resulted in low investments in the European energy sector and in renewable energy as well. Years later, one can say that these decisions are the most probable cause of Europe’s present challenges, which have implications not just on the poorer countries in Europe, yet on those in the Global South as well.

The seven packages of economic sanctions imposed on Russia, coupled with reciprocal suspensions and cuts of gas and oil supplies by Russia since the outbreak of the conflict, proved to be detrimental to Europe’s energy security. Besides the political upheaval, it would also lead to wave of bankruptcies, de-industrialization, recession and realignment of the global market’s supply and demand.

As Europe is sleepwalking toward another crisis, the recent decision to halt the natural gas supply to Europe by Russia, as a reciprocal measure for the Western sanctions, has additionally risen the already historic-high energy costs throughout the continent, paralyzing the Union’s industrial production and causing a wave of insolvencies, potentially driving the Old Continent into recession. As a result of the mutual sanctions, one can see EU policies and economic sanctions are resulting in scarcity, and those scarcities are causing skyrocketing prices, which in turn cause even more shortages in the EU. And if this were not enough, the introduction of price caps would result in even greater deficiency of the much-needed basic products, making the crisis self-sustaining and deteriorating. These series of events lead to the conclusion that Russia instrumentalized its gas supplies as a tool to put EU under pressure and precipitate the Union’s internal challenges, thus force a regime change from the bottom-up in EU member states, with new governments that are less committed to helping Ukraine’s war efforts.

Dealing with the pandemic consequences, countries in Europe, such as Germany, failed to previously diversify their energy assets, and as a result, are now struggling to figure out alternative remedies. Although it seems a belated move, the need to diversify the energy suppliers to Europe, and away from Russia, led EU politicians to the US, Norway, Azerbaijan, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Algeria in their quest to replace the lost volumes of Russian energy. The visit to Azerbaijan in mid-July 2022 by the EU Commission President von der Leyen resulted in signing of a Memorandum of Understanding on a Strategic Partnership between the two entities in the energy field.

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Such events are greatly welcomed by Middle Eastern and North African oil producing countries, as a unique chance to get involved and make some profit. Yet on the downside, such cooperation would produce repercussions beyond the economic realm, hinting EU’s broader participation in MENA region’s perplexing geopolitics.

Lastly, the crippled European energy security diminishes EU’s economic competitiveness, which potentially leads to increasing popularity of separatist sentiments of EU member states in their effort to evade the economic and the energy crisis that Europe is walking into.

Currently, the European leaders are faced with rising fears that the pending energy crisis and spiraling inflation would spark off widespread social unrests, with protests by opposing political factions seeking political accountability and even demands for establishing a new deal with Russia over gas supplies, expressing antagonism toward NATO and EU.

According to official figures by Eurostat published in September 2022, the eurozone annual inflation reached 9.1 percent, noting the highest inflation rates above 20 percent in countries such as, Estonia (25.2%), Lithuania (21.1%), and Latvia (20.8%). Being wary of the risks posed by rising cost of living and high energy prices, the European Union, as well as individual European countries have already introduced plans to alleviate the energy crisis for their citizens. The measures taken, range from placing limits on energy prices, tax reduction, controlling temperatures in public institutions and buildings, to providing financial aid to vulnerable categories of citizens. Germany went even further, announcing implementation of a windfall tax system to target companies profiting from the energy crisis, and in turn provide cheaper electricity for its citizens.

However, provoked by certain German government officials’ statements, left wing and far-right factions announced weekly anti-government demonstrations in German cities starting from October 1, particularly in the Eastern parts of the country, related to the increasing energy prices, and demands to open the Nord Stream 2 pipeline. In addition, the German climate movement Fridays for Future also announced demonstrations in over two hundred cities in Germany calling for a global climate strike.

Likewise, following the survived vote of no-confidence, the Czech government announced the establishment of a government entity for purchasing energy supplies to vital public institutions, including hospitals and schools. Yet, the first weekend of September was marked with massive demonstrations in the Czech capital, dubbed “The Czech Republic First of All,” where protesters demanded political accountability for the failed government policies to suppress rising energy prices. The demonstrators were also condemning the country’s NATO membership and the EU, appealing for neutrality in the Ukrainian conflict. Furthermore, France’s ruling administration forewarned its citizens to get ready for a period of “energy sobriety,” promising financial relief to cope with the energy crisis. Thus far, the French government injected USD 26 billion to compensate the expenses for the increased energy bills. Yet, in early September the movement Les Patriotes led thousands of people on demonstrations, condemning the war in Ukraine and the ruling elite’s political decisions regarding the war. In fact, there were even calls for ending France’s membership in NATO.

As winter is coming closer and the Russian – Ukrainian conflict escalates, European nations began to realize the implications of the stagflation and soaring energy costs, revealing the undermined trust in national governments across Europe. Noteworthy mention is the political deadlock in Bulgaria, where the caretaker government was pushed by President Rumen Radev to make a new deal with Gazprom. This political move set demonstrations off of factions opposing Bulgaria’s energy dependence on Russia, however, having in mind Bulgaria’s traditional historic and cultural ties to Russia, certain factions welcomed the announcement of the new deal with Gazprom.

In addition, it can be seen that Hungary as well has no intentions of cutting the cord with Russia, noting that it did not support the EU oil sanctions recently, the Hungarian administration threw another spanner in the works of EU by demanding the exclusion of three Russian individuals from the EU sanctions list. Moreover, the Hungarian President Victor Orban during the meeting of the ruling Fidesz party held at the end of September blamed EU sanctions policy for the energy crisis.

Knowing that financially and materially supporting Ukraine, means rising economic costs for the aiding countries, there is a potential risk that the popular support would transform into anti-government protests. As the ambient for social upheaval gradually builds up in more European countries, the intensity and regularity of demonstrations and trade union activity is going to step up in the coming period.

Europe is set out for a severe winter season with consequences going beyond the economic realm. The social and economic side effects that the world experienced with the COVID-19 pandemic are likely to increase in the following period fueled by the energy crisis. Thus, anti-government protests and political instability are expected to engulf European societies regardless of their level of market development.

Although protests are currently low in intensity, the closing of winter, would make Europeans from all political spectrums realize that swallowing the bitter political pill has direct repercussions for their national economies and way of life. Analysts believe that this is just the beginning of the rising public exasperation. The crisis could also lead to rolling blackouts and wave of insolvencies of certain industries in Europe, most notably in Germany, Europe’s powerhouse. Should the following winter be harsher, the load on power grids would rise accordingly, and it would certainly exacerbate the already difficult energy crisis, not forgetting the cost-of-living crisis. This bears the potential for triggering initially localized demonstrations across the Old Continent; however, more radicalization of civil unrests would likely occur where the national governments’ ability to protect its population from skyrocketing living costs is reduced.

To make things even worse, in such circumstances private investors are more likely to find a way out, which would leave fewer resources to governments throughout Europe in mitigating the risks of social upheaval. Noteworthy thing to mention is that the energy crisis could prompt a populist and an extremist backlash, similar to the ones triggered by the pandemic and the imposed health restrictive measures in Europe, including the two other populist surges, such as the 2014 migrant crisis and the monetary crisis from 2008.

As fears from recession are growing and economists are predicting inflation levels for 2023 to be worse than those Europe is currently experiencing, coupled up with the wave of insolvencies, the probability of civil unrest and political instability across the continent seems more plausible. This potential scenario can also be instrumentalized by Russia to achieve its goals in the war in Ukraine. Should EU policymakers fail to recognize the gravity of the situation, gain perspective and acknowledge that their current policies are part of the problem, then Europe is set to experience an even worse crisis outcome, potentially bringing the euro a step closer to its end.

From a security perspective, noting the recent escalation of events related to the announced referendums for independence of the separatist republics in Ukraine, the ongoing partial mobilization in Russia, coupled with the corresponding positioning of NATO battlegroups, it seems that the energy crisis and the mutual sanctions game is not the only problem for EU. These series of events ought to ring Brussels’ alarm bells, reminding EU officials of the paramount importance of having established a European security strategy.